Who Will Win Idol?

With just three episodes remaining to crown an American Idol[1], now is an excellent time to ask ourselves the big question: who will win?

The Evil Genius Producers (EGPs), Suits at ABC (sABCs), and Nineteen Entertainment[2] probably already know from seeing the vote counts. But if recent history is any indication, we can make a reasonable guess without that data. The winner will most likely be the Idolist who meets most of these requirements:

• White male, guitar-playing country singer
• Compelling, human-interest backstory
• White male, guitar-playing country singer
• A Hero’s Journey/Cinderella story arc, i.e., the ascension of someone from humble beginnings
• White male, guitar-playing country singer

That means Will or Emmy must be considered the strongest favorites to appear in the three-hour finale on May 22.

That said, the subject of who the winner will be is the least interesting and most frustrating aspect of my Idol experience. My focus is always on who will most likely win after Idol by having commercial success. The sad fact is that it has been eleven seasons since the Idol winner (Phillip Phillips) has had post-Idol success. But during that time, Gabby Barrett (3^rd place to Maddie Poppe) and Lauren Spencer-Smith (how was it possible that she didn’t get out of the Top 20 during Just Sam’s season???) had platinum record achievements. In Nick Fradiani’s season, Daniel Seavey (9^th place) went on to become a member of a very successful boy band, and Jax (3^rd place) is a rising star with several hit singles. And keep an eye on Laci Kaye Booth, a country singer-songwriter from Laine Hardy’s season who has an album dropping May 11 that is getting a lot of buzz.

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So, who should win? Here’s an update on my “GPAs” for the seven remaining Idolists. For me, Will has been the most reliably excellent Idolist this season.

	GPA
Will	3.9
McKenna	3.5
Jack	3.1
Abi	3.1
Julia	2.94
Triston	2.90
Emmy	2.4

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Next week, Ciara mentors the top seven for the theme of Songs that make me want to dance. The voters will send two Idolists home.

See you soon.

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[1] May 5, 12, 19.

[2] Long-time executive producer of Idol.