Final Final Thoughts on Eurovision 2026

The jury votes that determine half of each country’s points have been cast. Here is how I think this year’s Grand Final is going to play out.

When they reveal those jury votes, I expect that Australia and Finland will be well out in front of the 25 Finalists, and that Australia needs to be in first place at this point in order to win. But also keep your eyes on Greece’s score and the gap between them and the leaders.¹ 

The gap matters because I expect Greece to win the public vote. And because the public vote results are revealed beginning with the countries that had the lowest jury votes, I expect that Greece’s public votes will be read before Australia and Finland. When Greece’s public points are revealed, I believe that Greece will temporarily jump into the lead at that point.

But will it be temporary? Eventually, we will see if Finland and/or Australia get enough public votes to surpass Greece. I’m thinking that Finland will do better in the public vote than Australia, and that is why I think that Australia needs to be in the lead in the jury vote. In any case, the wait for those final votes to be revealed will be EXCRUCIATING!

Notice how often I use the word “think.” In a year with many strong entries – I haven’t mentioned Denmark, Romania, Moldova, Sweden, Israel, Czechia, or Bulgaria – it’s impossible to have a strong opinion about either the jury or the public vote.

But basically, I think it comes down to this: how well Australia and Finland do in the public voting vs. how well Greece does with the jury vote.

And I’ll be fine if little or none of this comes to be true. A surprise will make this year’s Contest all the more controversial and memorable.

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1. No, I didn’t run the math on what is or isn’t a small gap, but a smaller gap is good for Greece.
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