The Four to Watch For: How did they do?

What if I told you that from The Bachelor premiere, I would pick a group of four women that would include someone that would get a Hometown visit or more? That would be pretty good, right? Well, that happened.

In my blog for The Bachelor premiere, I highlighted four women out of the 30 who came seeking a proposal[1] from Zach who might play a prominent role this season. I called them The Four to Watch For based on the study of the show’s historical trends by My Crack Research Staff at @BachelorData on Instagram. There are two elements in the editing of the premiere that are under the control of The Evil Genius Producers (EGPs) that have had predictive tendencies. These elements are important because the EGPs know the end at the beginning and are creating storylines through their editing to keep us engaged (pun intended).

One element is an Intro Package which is a mini-bio segment that is given to select contestants. In recent seasons, at least one of the Final Four girls, i.e., the ones getting Hometowns, had an Intro Package. 

The second category is First Five Out of the Limos. This has been a critical distinction: one of the Final Two has come out of this category in recent seasons.

Based on those two decisions by the EGPs, one key decision by Zach – The First Impression Rose – and my own factors[2], I selected The Four to Watch For:

  • Charity – Intro Package, First Five Out of the Limo.
  • Katherine – Intro Package.
  • Greer – Intro Package (and The First Impression Rose).
  • Jess – First Five Out of the Limo.

Overall, these factors worked out very well. Charity, who is getting a Hometown, had the strongest “resume” as the EGPs gave her both of their key choices. Katherine and Greer were the last two girls eliminated before Hometowns, so they clearly played prominent roles this season. Jess lasted six of the seven weeks and had a difficult breakup that got a lot of screentime.

Charity, Katherine, Greer, and Jess. Four girls. Four prominent roles played. Nicely done Crack Research Staff. Your next glass of wine is on me. 🙂

P.S. So what about the four Hometown Girls?

  • Charity – Intro Package, First Five Out of the Limo.
  • Ariel – First Five Out of the Limo.
  • Kaity – Intro Package.
  • Gabi – First Five Out of the Limo.

Remember that in recent seasons, one of the final two girls was in the First Five Out of the Limo. That is going to happen again this season. The EGPs tipped their hand in the first episode. Have a second glass on me, Crack Research Staff!

[1] Or Instagram followers (wink, wink)

[2] Katherine was the first one to pull him for a conversation; Greer was #6 out of the limo; he seemed to really vibe with Jess.

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